Are Commercial Real Estate Prices Falling in Central Kentucky? A Data-Driven Analysis Using Fayette County Property Assessor Records

If you have been reading national headlines, you might be tempted to sit on the sidelines.

You hear about interest rates. You hear about office vacancies in big cities. And naturally, you ask the question that every smart investor in Lexington and Central Kentucky is asking right now:

"Are commercial real estate prices falling?"

It feels safer to wait. You tell yourself you are just being prudent. You are waiting for the "correction" so you can scoop up a deal in Richmond or Georgetown.

But here is the hard truth: The crash isn't happening here.

While you are waiting for prices to drop, the market in Central Kentucky isn't just holding steady—it is accelerating. And every day you wait is likely making your next investment more expensive.

The Problem: You Are underwriting with National Headlines, Not Local Data

The villain in your story isn't the market; it's misinformation.

When you look at broad, national data, you see uncertainty. But real estate is hyper-local. What is happening in San Francisco or New York has nothing to do with what is happening in Fayette County.

If you rely on feelings or national news to time your investment in Frankfort or Nicholasville, you are gambling. You need a Guide who operates on hard facts.

The Reality: What the Numbers Actually Say

At Carto Commercial, we don't guess. We look at the data. And the most reliable data available—the Fayette County Property Valuation Administrator (PVA) records—tells a very different story than the rumor mill.

Here is the reality of the market right now:

1. Assessments Are Up (Because Prices Are Up) The Fayette County PVA assesses property based on actual market transactions. They don't raise values arbitrarily; they raise them because properties are selling for more.

• Total Commercial Property Assessments: Up 15.8% year-over-year.
• Commercial Land Assessments: Skyrocketed 82.6%.

When the tax assessor says land values have nearly doubled, it’s because investors are paying those prices. That is not a crashing market; that is a booming one.

2. Multifamily is a Powerhouse In Lexington, the demand for housing is relentless.

• Rents are rising: Asking rents hit $1,312/unit, up 2.8% in just two quarters.
• Vacancies are low: Occupancy is holding strong at 95.3%.
• Cap Rates are compressing: Class A properties are trading at 4.84-5.17%.
• Translation: When cap rates go down, property values go up.

3. Industrial is Exploding Drive through Georgetown, KY or looking at the Legacy Business Park. You will see construction everywhere. The new Bluegrass Logistics Center (1 million sq ft) isn't sitting empty; it’s a hub of activity. The 82.6% jump in land value assessments proves that developers are fighting for dirt because they know tenants are waiting.

Why It Feels Like Prices Should Be Dropping (But Aren't)

You might be thinking, "But interest rates are higher. Shouldn't that lower prices?"

It makes buying harder, yes. It impacts affordability. But it hasn't lowered prices because supply is low and demand is high.

• In Lexington, we don't have an oversupply of apartments.
• In Richmond, businesses still need storefronts.
• In Central Kentucky, logistics companies need warehouses.

When demand outpaces supply, prices rise—regardless of what the Fed does.

Your Plan to Win in a Rising Market

Stop waiting for a dip that the data says isn't coming. Here is how you capitalize on this growth with Carto Commercial:

1. Ignore the Noise: Stop reading national doom-and-gloom articles. Look at the Fayette County PVA data.
2. Target Value-Add: In a rising market, you don't just buy and hold; you buy and improve. We help you find under-managed assets in Lexington or Frankfort where you can raise rents to match the market.
3. Lock It In: With land values soaring, getting control of a property now is your hedge against future inflation.

The Cost of Waiting

Imagine looking back in 12 months. The assessments have gone up another 10%. That warehouse in Georgetown you looked at is now 15% more expensive. That multifamily complex in Nicholasville is out of reach.

Don't let "prudence" turn into a missed opportunity.

The data is clear: Commercial Real Estate in Central Kentucky is rising. The only question is, will you benefit from that growth, or will you pay for it later?